中國人口數(shù)量達(dá)到1.36億峰值后或?qū)⑾陆?/title> <meta name="description" content="中國作為第一人口大國，一直以來是不缺勞動(dòng)力的國家，但是因?yàn)榉N種原因，中國的人口將會(huì)有下降趨勢(shì)，可能會(huì)失去人口紅利的優(yōu)勢(shì)。預(yù)計(jì)在中國人口將達(dá)到峰值。下面為你預(yù)計(jì)中國人口數(shù)量。預(yù)計(jì)中國人口數(shù)量：1,360" /> <link href="http://womenmagazine.org/skin/css/global.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head> <body> <h1><a href="http://womenmagazine.org/">中文字幕免费观看一区,亚洲人成日韩中文字幕不,亚洲欧洲精品一区二区三区,日本一级a爱片免费观看</a></h1> <div style="position:fixed;left:-9000px;top:-9000px;"><del id="mtwjv"></del><sup id="mtwjv"></sup><noframes id="mtwjv"></noframes><bdo id="mtwjv"><small id="mtwjv"></small></bdo><strike id="mtwjv"></strike><tr id="mtwjv"></tr><track id="mtwjv"></track><big id="mtwjv"></big><noscript id="mtwjv"></noscript><tr id="mtwjv"><acronym id="mtwjv"><em 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class="bshare-qzone">空間</a> <a title="分享到QQ好友" href="javascript:void(0)" target="_self" class="bshare-qqim">QQ</a> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="eoodj1y" id="main"> <div id="lcc6gmr" class="bread-crumbs"><a href="/">首頁</a> > <a href="/listinfo/1f0.html">排行榜</a> > <a href="/listinfo/15f0.html">知識(shí)</a><span>正文</span></div>  <article class="bd_article"> <h1>中國人口數(shù)量達(dá)到1.36億峰值后或?qū)⑾陆?/h1> <p class="info"> <span>琉璃碎</span><time class="timeago" datetime="2020-08-13 09:37:10.0"></time> <div id="6vwjb2a" class="reportbtn"> <a href="javascript:;" class="article-report" data-cid="15" data-id="13444" data-url="http://womenmagazine.org/article/202008/13444.html" target="_self">投訴/報(bào)錯(cuò)</a> </div> </p> <div id="o8p27gj" class="reportbox" id="reportbox-13444"></div> <div id="vtkyi7h" class="newstext"> <p>中國作為第一人口大國，一直以來是不缺勞動(dòng)力的國家，但是因?yàn)榉N種原因，中國的人口將會(huì)有下降趨勢(shì)，可能會(huì)失去人口紅利的優(yōu)勢(shì)。預(yù)計(jì)在中國人口將達(dá)到峰值。下面為你預(yù)計(jì)中國人口數(shù)量。</p><p><strong>預(yù)計(jì)中國人口數(shù)量：1,360,000,000人</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img alt="2020年中國人口數(shù)量達(dá)到1.36億峰值后或?qū)⑾陆? src="https://img.lm263.com/2020-04/2cd44c01b805af7cfbde617332be287a.jpg"></img></p><p>中國出生率</strong></p><p>人口總數(shù) 1,390,000,000</p><p>人均國民總收入(PPP國際美元, )9,040</p><p>男/女出生期望壽命(歲, )74/77</p><p>5歲以下兒童死亡率(每1000活產(chǎn)兒, 0年)無數(shù)據(jù)</p><p>15歲至60歲男/女死亡率(每1000人, )106/79</p><p>人均衛(wèi)生總支出(PPP國際美元, )480</p><p>衛(wèi)生總支出占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分比5.4</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="2020年中國人口數(shù)量達(dá)到1.36億峰值后或?qū)⑾陆? src="https://img.lm263.com/2020-04/4ed05428e98db10c2666f22ca1b8c687.jpg"></img></p><p><strong>中國60歲以上人口占比</strong></p><p><strong>一、人口老齡化問題嚴(yán)重</strong></p><p>中國人口最大的難題是人口結(jié)構(gòu)老齡化。年輕人比例減少，老齡人比例增加，就形成老齡化社會(huì)的供養(yǎng)壓力。如果國家提早一些年進(jìn)入發(fā)達(dá)社會(huì)，社會(huì)積累的資源多還好辦些?？上е袊皇?，尚在發(fā)展中，尚在崛起中，人均收入仍偏低，只有美國的七分之一，還沒有成為真正的發(fā)達(dá)國家。未富先老，則直接影響財(cái)富的積累，影響中產(chǎn)階層的壯大。更何按中國新標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，我國有8000到9000萬貧困人群;按聯(lián)合國的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，我國貧困人口總數(shù)達(dá)1.5至2億之多。</p><p><strong>二、生育意愿低少子化</strong></p><p>根據(jù)人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，一個(gè)社會(huì)0～14歲人口占比15%～18%為“嚴(yán)重少子化”，15%以內(nèi)為“超少子化”。目前日本的少兒人口比重約為13%，處于“超少子化”階段。而根據(jù)第六次人口普查，中國0~14歲人口總量為2.2億，占總?cè)丝诘?6.6%，已經(jīng)處于嚴(yán)重少子化水平。</p><p>從絕對(duì)數(shù)量看，1980年后出生人口為2.28億，1990年后出生人口為1.75億，而2000年后人口只有1.46億。20年時(shí)間內(nèi)，出生人口減少了36%。</p><p>除了人口普查和抽查的數(shù)據(jù)之外，還有一些數(shù)據(jù)同樣可以提供中國孩子在減少的證據(jù)。從教育部的在校生統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)看，從1998年開始，小學(xué)在校生開始減少。從2004年，初中生人數(shù)逐年減少。減少幅度從數(shù)十萬到四五百萬不等。從招生情況看，小學(xué)招生人數(shù)從1997年的2500萬減少至的1658萬，初中招生人數(shù)也從<u>最高</u>峰時(shí)每年招生2263萬人，下降至去年的1448萬人。</p><p>根據(jù)六普數(shù)據(jù)的推算可以看出，未來問題會(huì)遠(yuǎn)比現(xiàn)在更嚴(yán)重。在未來10年，中國23~28歲的生育旺盛期女性的數(shù)量將萎縮44.3%，如果生育率沒有明顯提升，0~14歲人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤龑⒔抵?0%以下，比“超少子化”水平還要低一大截。</p><p>少子化導(dǎo)致的人口老化和萎縮會(huì)給經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來長(zhǎng)期的負(fù)面影響。人口減少會(huì)導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)與需求同步萎縮，經(jīng)濟(jì)失去動(dòng)力和活動(dòng)，匹配效率下降，最終導(dǎo)致人均<u>GDP</u>的相對(duì)下降。</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="2020年中國人口數(shù)量達(dá)到1.36億峰值后或?qū)⑾陆? src="https://img.lm263.com/2020-04/66b7abda2404720097be21a8f0a1f629.jpg"></img></p><p><strong>三、負(fù)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)警</strong></p><p>中國生育率如此低但人口還在增長(zhǎng)的原因是人口慣性。雖然孩子數(shù)量越來越少，但依然高于老人，等到60后開始老去，中國出生人口將遠(yuǎn)少于死亡人口，總?cè)丝谖s的速度在人類歷史上將是空前的。中國少兒人口數(shù)量逐年減少，正是人口負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)先兆。</p><p>根據(jù)聯(lián)合國《<u>世界人口</u>前景修訂本》按高、中、低三種生育率方案對(duì)中國人口增長(zhǎng)率所做的預(yù)測(cè)，按照中方案，中國人口將在2026年轉(zhuǎn)入負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，此后負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的速度越來越快，直到2060年才穩(wěn)定下來。而按照低方案，中國人口在達(dá)到13.6億的峰值后迅速下降。而《第一財(cái)經(jīng)日?qǐng)?bào)》采訪的學(xué)者普遍認(rèn)為，中國人口萎縮的具體時(shí)間取決于人口政策和生育率的變化，但基本可以肯定在聯(lián)合國的中方案和低方案之間。</p><p>中國人民大學(xué)人口學(xué)者顧寶昌判斷，中國人口負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的大勢(shì)已定，21世紀(jì)中國面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就是人口負(fù)增長(zhǎng)造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p><strong>四、人力資源困境</strong></p><p>中國絕對(duì)人口數(shù)量依然很多，但實(shí)際勞動(dòng)力總數(shù)卻走進(jìn)了下降通道，這就形成暫時(shí)性勞動(dòng)力緊缺現(xiàn)象。勞動(dòng)力緊缺可以推高勞動(dòng)力成本，但緊缺與成本又對(duì)不少企業(yè)是災(zāi)難性的。中國企業(yè)仍是普遍地低知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)經(jīng)營、低附加值經(jīng)營、山寨經(jīng)營，又有大量企業(yè)屬于勞動(dòng)密集型企業(yè)。勞動(dòng)力緊缺和企業(yè)經(jīng)營成本增高的結(jié)果就是企業(yè)走向緊縮、破產(chǎn)和倒閉之路。這一現(xiàn)象自開始就已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。說是暫時(shí)性勞動(dòng)力緊缺現(xiàn)象，那是在企業(yè)倒閉數(shù)形成一定規(guī)模后，大量工作機(jī)會(huì)因此長(zhǎng)期失去，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)反轉(zhuǎn)，又會(huì)產(chǎn)生龐大的失業(yè)大軍。</p><p><strong>　</strong></p> 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